Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Slask Wroclaw travel to to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's home record at : 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 1W 3D 2L from 6 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.10 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Slask Wroclaw and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Slask Wroclaw 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Radomiak Radom 83% | Slask Wroclaw 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.53 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.939 / defence 1.010 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.866 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 40 Radomiak Radom games / 6 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 43% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 25%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Slask Wroclaw 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Slask Wroclaw 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 43% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.53 / Slask Wroclaw 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.939 / def 1.010 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.866 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Slask Wroclaw xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 43% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (8 meetings): Radomiak Radom 3W | Draws 3 | Slask Wroclaw 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.94x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.18
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.67
1.14
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
5%
18.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.14 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 2W 1D 3L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.17 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slask Wroclaw's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.33 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 67%, Slask Wroclaw at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Radomiak Radom and 67% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Radomiak Radom's games and 100% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 67% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.