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Dominant Motor Lublin run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Wisla Plock.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Wisla Plock 0-4 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.01 xG and Motor Lublin 1.21 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Motor Lublin outscored their 1.21 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.61 / defence 1.06 against Motor Lublin attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 29% | Draw 33% | Motor Lublin 38%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 32%, Motor Lublin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.45 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights