Wisla Plock 0-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lech Poznan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan meet at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Wisla Plock have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Lech Poznan have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lech Poznan have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.80 for Lech Poznan. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wisla Plock lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with Lech Poznan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Wisla Plock half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 57% versus Lech Poznan 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 54% | Lech Poznan 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.23 xG and Lech Poznan 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.130 / defence 1.206 | Lech Poznan attack 1.014 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.117. Data: 28 Wisla Plock games / 28 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 33% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 39%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Lech Poznan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 50% | Lech Poznan 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 33% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Wisla Plock 1.23 / Lech Poznan 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.130 / def 1.206 | Lech Poznan attack 1.014 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Lech Poznan xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan?
Wisla Plock 0 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan part of?
Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 33% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 0 | Lech Poznan 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Lech Poznan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Lech Poznan's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (1.01x) against Wisla Plock's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
33%
3.04
28%
3.58
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.60
1.37
Lech Poznan xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.37 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 13W 3D 12L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 16W 8D 4L from 28 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wisla Plock.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 2.29 PPG from 14 outings (10W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 6W 5D 3L from 14 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.93 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 13W 3D 12L in their last 28 games (1.50 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 16W 8D 4L in their last 28 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Lech Poznan away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.29 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lech Poznan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
2
Draws
3
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Lech Poznan 2-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Lech Poznan see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 43%, Lech Poznan 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Wisla Plock) and 50% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 57% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 50% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Wisla Plock 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Wisla Plock 0-1 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.23 xG and Lech Poznan 1.37 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.13 / defence 1.21 against Lech Poznan attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 33% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 39%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 54%, Lech Poznan 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.