Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 28 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Plock have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Pogon Szczecin have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pogon Szczecin have won 0, Wisla Plock 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 56% versus Wisla Plock 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 44% | Wisla Plock 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.25 xG and Wisla Plock 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.494 / defence 1.172 | Wisla Plock attack 0.807 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.115. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.494 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.406 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Pogon Szczecin games / 27 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 63% | Draw 21% | Wisla Plock 16%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Wisla Plock 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Wisla Plock 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 63% | Draw 21% | Wisla Plock 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.25 / Wisla Plock 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.494 / def 1.172 | Wisla Plock attack 0.807 / def 1.406 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Wisla Plock xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 2 Wisla Plock.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 63% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.49) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.74
16%
6.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.30
1.05
Wisla Plock xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
6.40
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
11%
9.45
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
2%
60.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.05 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 16W 8D 3L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock's form line: 12W 3D 12L from 27 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wisla Plock.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.46 PPG from 13 outings (10W 2D 1L).
On the road, Wisla Plock have gone 2W 1D 10L from 13 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.44 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 16W 8D 3L in their last 27 games (2.07 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 12W 3D 12L in their last 27 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Wisla Plock away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.46 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 69%, Wisla Plock at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Pogon Szczecin and 62% for Wisla Plock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 69% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 62% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Pogon Szczecin 1-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.25 xG and Wisla Plock 1.05 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Wisla Plock outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.49 / defence 1.17 against Wisla Plock attack 0.81 / defence 1.41, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 63% | Draw 21% | Wisla Plock 16%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Plock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 44%, Wisla Plock 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Wisla Plock winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.