Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 29 as Slask Wroclaw welcome Wisla Krakow to Tarczyński Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Slask Wroclaw at Tarczyński Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Slask Wroclaw are significantly better at Tarczyński Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wisla Krakow's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Slask Wroclaw) versus 1.00 (Wisla Krakow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Slask Wroclaw, 0 for Wisla Krakow and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 5–0 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Wisla Krakow in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 64% versus Wisla Krakow 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 54% | Wisla Krakow 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.06 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.684 / defence 1.162 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.761 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.104. Slask Wroclaw's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Slask Wroclaw's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Slask Wroclaw games / 28 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 31% | Wisla Krakow 32%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Wisla Krakow 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Wisla Krakow 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 31% | Wisla Krakow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.06 / Wisla Krakow 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.684 / def 1.162 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.761 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Wisla Krakow xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow?
Slask Wroclaw 1 - 1 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 37% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 0W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 0.68x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.22
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.04
0.98
Wisla Krakow xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 0.98 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Slask Wroclaw have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 7W 10D 11L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Wisla Krakow's form line: 7W 7D 14L from 28 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.11 PPG, Wisla Krakow on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Slask Wroclaw have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 2D 9L from 13 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.11 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
Wisla Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 7W 10D 11L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 7W 7D 14L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.15 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
1
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 54%, Wisla Krakow 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Slask Wroclaw) and 54% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 38% of games; Wisla Krakow in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 62% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 54% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 29, as Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.06 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.98 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.68 / defence 1.16 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.76 / defence 1.49, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 31% | Wisla Krakow 32%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 54%, Wisla Krakow 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.11 PPG, Wisla Krakow 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.