Wisla Plock 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Cracovia Krakow at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 4 December 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 6W 2D 1L at Orlen Stadion — 2.22 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Orlen Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Orlen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.20 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wisla Plock, 2 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 56% versus Cracovia Krakow 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 19% | Cracovia Krakow 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.24 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.834 / defence 0.747 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.989 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.229. Wisla Plock's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 16 Wisla Plock games / 50 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 41% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 25%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Cracovia Krakow 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 33% | Cracovia Krakow 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 41% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Wisla Plock 1.24 / Cracovia Krakow 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.834 / def 0.747 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.989 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cracovia Krakow xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 4 December 2025 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Plock 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 41% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (4 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
41%
2.42
34%
2.93
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.15
0.91
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.91 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock come into this having played 16 games, going 7W 7D 2L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (7W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.75 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wisla Plock's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.44 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 7W 7D 2L in their last 16 games (1.75 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 7W 4D 5L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.12 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 38%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Wisla Plock) and 75% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 75% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wisla Plock's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.24 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.91 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.83 / defence 0.75 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 41% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 25%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 19%, Cracovia Krakow 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.75 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.