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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 September 2025, 13:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadion Wojska Polskiego — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Legia Warszawa) versus 1.20 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 4 for Radomiak Radom and 0 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Legia Warszawa trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Radomiak Radom trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 62% and Radomiak Radom 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 54% | Radomiak Radom 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.73 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.915 / defence 0.923 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.015 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.186. Data: 39 Legia Warszawa games / 41 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 24%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Radomiak Radom 4.17. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.

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