Wisla Plock 0-3 Arka Gdynia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wisla Plock face Arka Gdynia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Arka Gdynia travel to Orlen Stadion to take on Wisla Plock in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Monday 9 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wisla Plock stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Wisla Plock at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Arka Gdynia have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Arka Gdynia have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Wisla Plock) versus 1.10 (Arka Gdynia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Wisla Plock have won 0, Arka Gdynia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2025, ended Wisla Plock 0–1 Arka Gdynia — a Arka Gdynia win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Arka Gdynia in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 52% versus Arka Gdynia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 22% | Arka Gdynia 56%). Note also that Arka Gdynia surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Wisla Plock recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.63 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.798 / defence 0.963 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.624 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.141. Wisla Plock's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.63. Arka Gdynia's defence rating of 1.421 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wisla Plock's projected output up. Arka Gdynia's attack rating of 0.624 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Data: built from Wisla Plock's last 23 games and Arka Gdynia's last 23.
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 14%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.69 | Draw 3.80 | Arka Gdynia 6.92. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (59%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wisla Plock 40% (last 10 home games) | Arka Gdynia 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 24 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 9 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Wisla Plock 1.63 / Arka Gdynia 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.798 / def 0.963 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.624 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Arka Gdynia xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia FAQs
What time does Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 9 March 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia?
Wisla Plock 0 - 3 Arka Gdynia.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia part of?
Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 24) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 59% chance of winning, Arka Gdynia a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (0.80) and Arka Gdynia's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Arka Gdynia's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wisla Plock's last 23 games and Arka Gdynia's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.80
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.32
0.69
Arka Gdynia xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
3%
35.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.69 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 9D 6L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Arka Gdynia sit at 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.43 PPG, Arka Gdynia on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wisla Plock's home form reads 6W 3D 2L across their last 11 home games, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Arka Gdynia have taken 0.09 points per game from their last 11 away games (0W 1D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arka Gdynia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Arka Gdynia are on 0.96 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Arka Gdynia
Blended
Wisla Plock (Home) vs Arka Gdynia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wisla Plock
Blended
Arka Gdynia
Blended
❓ Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia Form FAQs
What form are Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 8W 9D 6L in their last 23 games (1.43 PPG), while Arka Gdynia have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Arka Gdynia away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.91 PPG; Arka Gdynia away: 0.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2025. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 9 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
2
Arka Gdynia
Recent Meetings
❓ Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Wisla Plock have won 0, Arka Gdynia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2026: Wisla Plock 0-3 Arka Gdynia.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia?
Arka Gdynia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Wisla Plock 36% BTTS, Arka Gdynia 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Wisla Plock) and 46% (Arka Gdynia).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 36% of games; Arka Gdynia in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Arka Gdynia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 27% of Arka Gdynia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 46% of Arka Gdynia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 73% of Arka Gdynia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arka Gdynia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arka Gdynia beat Wisla Plock 0-3 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.63 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.69 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Arka Gdynia outscored their 0.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.62 / defence 1.42, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 14%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Arka Gdynia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 22%, Arka Gdynia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.43 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arka Gdynia win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.