Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Wisla Krakow at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Krakow and Korona Kielce meet at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Wisla Krakow (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Wisla Krakow have posted 7W 0D 0L from their last 7 home games — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Korona Kielce's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Korona Kielce have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Wisla Krakow. A 0.50 PPG lead over Korona Kielce (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Wisla Krakow, 0 for Korona Kielce and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Sep 2026, ended Wisla Krakow 1–1 Korona Kielce — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Wisla Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 71% and Korona Kielce 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 64% | Korona Kielce 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.83 xG and Korona Kielce 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.010 / defence 0.864 | Korona Kielce attack 0.849 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.304. Data: built from Wisla Krakow's last 14 games and Korona Kielce's last 48.
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 56% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 18%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 1.78 | Draw 3.82 | Korona Kielce 5.64. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Krakow (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wisla Krakow 71% (last 7 home games) | Korona Kielce 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 24 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 56% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Wisla Krakow 1.83 / Korona Kielce 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.010 / def 0.864 | Korona Kielce attack 0.849 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Korona Kielce xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 24) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 56% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Korona Kielce will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wisla Krakow's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.85x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Wisla Krakow's last 14 games and Korona Kielce's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.82
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.78
0.96
Korona Kielce xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
3%
35.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 0.96 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Krakow come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 3D 4L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Wisla Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Wisla Krakow's home form reads 7W 0D 0L across their last 7 home games, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 7 away games (3W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
Wisla Krakow (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Wisla Krakow and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Korona Kielce away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 1 H2H match between Wisla Krakow and Korona Kielce, the earliest from September 2026. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
1
Draws
0
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Korona Kielce?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Korona Kielce have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Korona Kielce 1-1 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Krakow see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 71%, Korona Kielce 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Wisla Krakow) and 43% (Korona Kielce). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wisla Krakow and Korona Kielce matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Wisla Krakow's games and 43% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wisla Krakow and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 43% of Korona Kielce's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 86% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.