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Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.28 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 38% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 34%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 44%, Zaglebie Lubin 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.18 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights