Miedz Legnica 2-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Miedz Legnica at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Plock make the trip to Stadion im. Orła Białego to face Miedz Legnica in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 February 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Miedz Legnica (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Orła Białego, Miedz Legnica have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Plock have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Miedz Legnica against 1.10 for Wisla Plock. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Miedz Legnica have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wisla Plock in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Miedz Legnica 0W, Wisla Plock 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2022, ended 1–4 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Miedz Legnica half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wisla Plock half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Miedz Legnica 60% and Wisla Plock 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Miedz Legnica 50% | Wisla Plock 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Miedz Legnica 1.40 xG and Wisla Plock 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Miedz Legnica attack 0.904 / defence 1.204 | Wisla Plock attack 0.960 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.093. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Miedz Legnica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Miedz Legnica games / 53 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 39% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 33%. Fair-value odds: Miedz Legnica 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Wisla Plock 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Miedz Legnica at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Miedz Legnica if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Miedz Legnica 60% | Wisla Plock 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion im. Orła Białego • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 39% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Miedz Legnica 1.40 / Wisla Plock 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Miedz Legnica attack 0.904 / def 1.204 | Wisla Plock attack 0.960 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Miedz Legnica (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Miedz Legnica xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Wisla Plock xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What was the final score in Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock?
Miedz Legnica 2 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What competition is Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock part of?
Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Miedz Legnica a 39% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Miedz Legnica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Miedz Legnica and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Wisla Plock?
Record (1 meetings): Miedz Legnica 0W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Miedz Legnica and Wisla Plock in?
Miedz Legnica (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Miedz Legnica's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.96x) against Miedz Legnica's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 20/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Miedz Legnica Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.53
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Miedz Legnica xG
Total xG
2.66
1.26
Wisla Plock xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
8%
12.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Miedz Legnica and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.26 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Miedz Legnica have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 3W 6D 11L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock's form line: 9W 4D 7L from 20 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wisla Plock are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Miedz Legnica.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Miedz Legnica have posted 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L).
On the road, Wisla Plock have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Attack vs Defence
Miedz Legnica are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.60 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Wisla Plock in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Miedz Legnica
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Miedz Legnica and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Miedz Legnica have gone 3W 6D 11L in their last 20 games (0.75 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 9W 4D 7L in their last 20 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Miedz Legnica at home or Wisla Plock away?
Miedz Legnica's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Miedz Legnica at home: 1.00 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Miedz Legnica
0
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Wisla Plock?
From 2 meetings on record, Miedz Legnica have won 1, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Miedz Legnica and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Miedz Legnica 2-1 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Miedz Legnica, 70% for Wisla Plock — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Miedz Legnica) and 60% (Wisla Plock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Miedz Legnica have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Miedz Legnica home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Miedz Legnica play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Miedz Legnica's games and 70% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Miedz Legnica's matches and 60% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Miedz Legnica and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Miedz Legnica have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Miedz Legnica edge out Wisla Plock 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Miedz Legnica beat Wisla Plock 2-1 at Stadion im. Orła Białego, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Miedz Legnica 1.40 xG and Wisla Plock 1.26 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Miedz Legnica attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against Wisla Plock attack 0.96 / defence 1.27, drawn from 20/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Miedz Legnica 39% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 33%, with Miedz Legnica to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Miedz Legnica 50%, Wisla Plock 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Miedz Legnica winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Miedz Legnica (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.