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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stal Mielec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Stal Mielec 0-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 0.68 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.25 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.77 / defence 1.04 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 0.59, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 20% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 50%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 53%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stal Mielec's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights