Stal Mielec 0-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stal Mielec face Raków Częstochowa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Stal Mielec's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Raków Częstochowa arrive in superior form — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Raków Częstochowa, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Stal Mielec — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 58% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 53% | Raków Częstochowa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 0.68 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.766 / defence 1.037 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.964 / defence 0.594. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.245. Stal Mielec's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.594 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 Stal Mielec games / 64 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 20% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 50%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | Raków Częstochowa 2.00. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Stal Mielec's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 70% | Raków Częstochowa 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 20% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Stal Mielec 0.68 / Raków Częstochowa 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.766 / def 1.037 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.964 / def 0.594 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Raków Częstochowa xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Stal Mielec 0 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 20% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (7 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.77x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 0.59x — combine the two and it projects 0.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.96x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
20%
4.89
30%
3.36
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
1.93
1.25
Raków Częstochowa xG
4.89
20%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
50%
1.98
Win to Nil
6%
17.00
25%
3.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 18.1 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.25 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stal Mielec come into this having played 64 games, going 17W 18D 29L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.78 PPG from 64 outings (32W 18D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stal Mielec's home form reads 13W 11D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.53 points per game from 32 outings (13W 10D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.55 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 17W 18D 29L in their last 64 games (1.08 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 32W 18D 14L in their last 64 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.56 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Raków Częstochowa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 19 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
6
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 0-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 53%, Raków Częstochowa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Stal Mielec) and 38% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 41%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 50% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 38% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Stal Mielec 0-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 0.68 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.25 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.77 / defence 1.04 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 0.59, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 20% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 50%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 53%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.