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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.13 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stal Mielec beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.72 / defence 1.09 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 31% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 42%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 53%, Radomiak Radom 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stal Mielec's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.09 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights