🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 33 as Stal Mielec welcome Radomiak Radom to Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Radomiak Radom's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Stal Mielec's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stal Mielec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Radomiak Radom in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Stal Mielec, 2 for Radomiak Radom and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Stal Mielec winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Stal Mielec trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Radomiak Radom trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 58% versus Radomiak Radom 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 53% | Radomiak Radom 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.13 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.718 / defence 1.089 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.987 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.260. Stal Mielec's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Stal Mielec games / 66 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 31% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 42%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Radomiak Radom 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 60% | Radomiak Radom 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights