Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slask Wroclaw have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 4D 1L this season (7 games, 1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stal Mielec's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 1W 4D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Slask Wroclaw, 1.70 for Stal Mielec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Slask Wroclaw register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant games, Stal Mielec in 71%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slask Wroclaw 73% and Stal Mielec 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 67% | Stal Mielec 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.32 xG and Stal Mielec 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.922 / defence 1.169 | Stal Mielec attack 0.922 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.225. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Slask Wroclaw's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Slask Wroclaw games / 15 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 37%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Stal Mielec 2.70. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 71% | Stal Mielec 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.32 / Stal Mielec 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.922 / def 1.169 | Stal Mielec attack 0.922 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Stal Mielec xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec?
Slask Wroclaw 2 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 37% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (0.92) and Stal Mielec's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (0.92x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.77
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.64
1.32
Stal Mielec xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.32 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 5W 6D 4L from 15 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 4L across 15 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.40 for Stal Mielec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 2W 4D 1L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 1W 4D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 5W 6D 4L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 5W 6D 4L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Stal Mielec away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.43 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Slask Wroclaw have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slask Wroclaw won 1-4 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Slask Wroclaw
2
Draws
3
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-4 Slask Wroclaw.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Slask Wroclaw, 71% for Stal Mielec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Slask Wroclaw) and 43% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 71% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 43% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slask Wroclaw edge out Stal Mielec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Stal Mielec 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.32 xG and Stal Mielec 1.32 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Stal Mielec attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 37%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 67%, Stal Mielec 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.40 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.