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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.47 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.70 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.89 / defence 1.25 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.13 / defence 1.12, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 43%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 53%, Cracovia Krakow 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stal Mielec's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.10 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights