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Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Raków Częstochowa 0-1 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.60 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.01 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 22%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 43%, Zaglebie Lubin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights