Raków Częstochowa 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Raków Częstochowa face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to zondacrypto Arena to face Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 December 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa at zondacrypto Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at zondacrypto Arena this season.
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Raków Częstochowa. A 0.60 PPG lead over Zaglebie Lubin (2.20 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Raków Częstochowa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Zaglebie Lubin in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, Raków Częstochowa are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Raków Częstochowa and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 47% versus Zaglebie Lubin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 43% | Zaglebie Lubin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.60 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.873 / defence 0.978 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.864 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.193. Data: 51 Raków Częstochowa games / 51 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 22%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.55. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.60 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.873 / def 0.978 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.864 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Zaglebie Lubin xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Raków Częstochowa 0 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 49% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (8 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 5W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 2W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (0.87) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.86x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.46
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.61
1.01
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
4%
22.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.01 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 29W 11D 11L from 51 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 22L across 51 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zaglebie Lubin heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 13W 5D 7L from 25 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 5W 6D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.24 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 29W 11D 11L in their last 51 games (1.92 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 16W 13D 22L in their last 51 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.76 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 on 5 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 56%, Zaglebie Lubin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Raków Częstochowa) and 44% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 44% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Raków Częstochowa 0-1 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.60 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.01 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 22%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 43%, Zaglebie Lubin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.