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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pogon Szczecin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Pogon Szczecin 2-0 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.09 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.81 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pogon Szczecin landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.77 / defence 0.80 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 25%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.81 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights