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Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Nieciecza 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Nieciecza 1-0 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.33 xG and Nieciecza 0.96 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nieciecza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.76 / defence 0.88 against Nieciecza attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Nieciecza 25%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 48%, Nieciecza 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Nieciecza's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Nieciecza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights