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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Regular Season - 9, as Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.26 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.28 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 36% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 37%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 40%, Legia Warszawa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.88 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights