Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie plays host to Raków Częstochowa versus Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 20 September 2025 at 19:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 1.40 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Raków Częstochowa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Legia Warszawa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Raków Częstochowa, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Legia Warszawa — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 3–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Raków Częstochowa and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 42% versus Legia Warszawa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 40% | Legia Warszawa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.26 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.891 / defence 1.037 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.071 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.155. Data: 40 Raków Częstochowa games / 40 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 36% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 37%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Legia Warszawa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 36% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.26 / Legia Warszawa 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.891 / def 1.037 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.071 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Legia Warszawa xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 36% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
Record (8 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 5W | Draws 2 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 0.89x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.07x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
36%
2.76
27%
3.74
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.55
1.28
Legia Warszawa xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.97
10%
9.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.28 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 22W 9D 9L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 18W 10D 12L from 40 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 1.60 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (10W 3D 6L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 5D 8L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 62%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 22W 9D 9L in their last 40 games (1.88 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 18W 10D 12L in their last 40 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.74 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
4
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 53%, Legia Warszawa 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Raków Częstochowa) and 58% (Legia Warszawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 63% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 58% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Regular Season - 9, as Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.26 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.28 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 36% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 37%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 40%, Legia Warszawa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.88 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.