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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Korona Kielce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Korona Kielce 2-0 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.62 xG and Korona Kielce 0.96 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Korona Kielce landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.06 / defence 0.88 against Korona Kielce attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 52% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 21%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Korona Kielce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights