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Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Raków Częstochowa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Raków Częstochowa 0-2 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.32 xG and Jagiellonia 0.94 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 0.79 against Jagiellonia attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 25%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Jagiellonia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.82 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights