🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.75 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 63%, Zaglebie Lubin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.16 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights