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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 11 as Radomiak Radom welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Radomiaka. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 October 2025 at 16:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Radomiaka this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion Radomiaka than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Radomiak Radom at 1.20 PPG versus Zaglebie Lubin's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin 5, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 70% and Zaglebie Lubin 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 63% | Zaglebie Lubin 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.75 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.154 / defence 0.941 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.995 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.220. Data: 44 Radomiak Radom games / 43 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.17. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 60% BTTS from recent games.

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