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Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pogon Szczecin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Pogon Szczecin 2-0 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.52 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.61 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.28 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 36% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 40%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 56%, Pogon Szczecin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights