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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.

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Analysis

Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 13:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Radomiaka this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Pogon Szczecin (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Radomiak Radom, 2.00 for Pogon Szczecin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Radomiak Radom 2W, Pogon Szczecin 4W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Radomiak Radom winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 56% versus Pogon Szczecin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 56% | Pogon Szczecin 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.52 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.950 / defence 1.006 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.276 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.257. Pogon Szczecin have an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Radomiak Radom games / 64 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 36% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 40%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Pogon Szczecin 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Pogon Szczecin 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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