Radomiak Radom 0-4 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka Radom to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 16 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Radomiaka Radom this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Pogon Szczecin are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Radomiak Radom 1W, Pogon Szczecin 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 41% versus Pogon Szczecin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 41% | Pogon Szczecin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.90 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.907 / defence 0.979 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.039 / defence 0.671. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.214. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.671 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Radomiak Radom games / 54 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 43%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Pogon Szczecin 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Pogon Szczecin 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Radomiak Radom 0.90 / Pogon Szczecin 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.907 / def 0.979 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.039 / def 0.671 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Pogon Szczecin xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 4 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 26% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (5 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.91x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.04x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
26%
3.83
31%
3.26
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.13
1.24
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
8%
13.15
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.6 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.24 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 14D 22L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.72 PPG from 54 outings (27W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 7W 9D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.67 points per game from 27 outings (13W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.70 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 27W 12D 15L in their last 54 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.11 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
2
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 44%, Pogon Szczecin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Radomiak Radom) and 44% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 33%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 41% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 44% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Radomiak Radom 0-4 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 0.90 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.24 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.04 / defence 0.67, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 43%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 41%, Pogon Szczecin 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.