Warta Poznań 0-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Respect Energy plays host to Warta Poznań versus Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Monday 26 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadion Respect Energy — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Warta Poznań, 1.00 for Radomiak Radom — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Warta Poznań, 3 for Radomiak Radom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Warta Poznań half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 40% versus Radomiak Radom 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 33% | Radomiak Radom 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.61 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.872 / defence 0.998 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.924 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.240. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Warta Poznań's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Warta Poznań games / 55 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 46% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 25%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Radomiak Radom 4.00. Warta Poznań hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Warta Poznań at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: Warta Poznań 40% | Radomiak Radom 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 46% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Warta Poznań 1.61 / Radomiak Radom 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.872 / def 0.998 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.924 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Radomiak Radom xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 February 2024 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Warta Poznań 0 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 46% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom?
Record (5 meetings): Warta Poznań 2W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.87x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.92x) against Warta Poznań's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.42
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.76
1.14
Radomiak Radom xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
5%
20.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.14 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Warta Poznań's recent record stands at 17W 17D 21L from 55 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 23L across 55 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.24 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Warta Poznań have managed 7W 10D 10L from 27 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 11W 5D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.05 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 17W 17D 21L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 14D 23L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.15 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 2, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Warta Poznań 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 48%, Radomiak Radom 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Warta Poznań) and 52% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 37% of games; Radomiak Radom in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 37% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 52% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Warta Poznań's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 22, as Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.61 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.14 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Warta Poznań fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.92 / defence 1.29, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 46% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 25%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 33%, Radomiak Radom 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.24 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.