Cracovia Krakow 6-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Cracovia Krakow's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Radomiak Radom arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours Cracovia Krakow, who have won 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Radomiak Radom — Radomiak Radom have 0 wins, with 0 draws.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Cracovia Krakow 1–0 Radomiak Radom — a Cracovia Krakow win.

The head-to-head data gives Cracovia Krakow an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 45% versus Radomiak Radom 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cracovia Krakow 34% | Radomiak Radom 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.48 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.093 / defence 1.245 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.065 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.213. Cracovia Krakow's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Radomiak Radom's projected output up. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 53 games and Radomiak Radom's last 53.

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 40%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.92 | Draw 3.87 | Radomiak Radom 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 70% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 20% (last 10 away games).

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