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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Radomiak Radom 2-3 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.83 xG and Motor Lublin 0.86 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Motor Lublin outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Motor Lublin attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 60% | Draw 23% | Motor Lublin 17%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 61%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.24 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights