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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.66 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.18 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 26%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.26 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights