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Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Lechia Gdansk 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Lechia Gdansk 2-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.79 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.21 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.02 / defence 1.29, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 26%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 58%, Lechia Gdansk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.17 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights