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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion Radomiaka to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 March 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion Radomiaka, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.20 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Lechia Gdansk 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Lechia Gdansk winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Lechia Gdansk 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 58% | Lechia Gdansk 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.79 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.019 / defence 1.003 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.021 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.186. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Radomiak Radom games / 24 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 26%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Lechia Gdansk 3.85. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Lechia Gdansk 80% BTTS from recent games.

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