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Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Radomiak Radom 1-2 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 2.08 xG and Jagiellonia 1.20 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.35 / defence 0.97 against Jagiellonia attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 57% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 21%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, Jagiellonia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights