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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sun 17 Aug 2025

16:30

Venue

Stadion Radomiaka

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Radomiak Radom Win

57%

Radomiak Radom

1.75

22%

Draw

4.57

21%

Jagiellonia

4.78

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

9.4%

Draw

2 – 0

8.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.08

Radomiak Radom xG

Total xG

3.27

1.20

Jagiellonia xG

57%
22%
21%
Radomiak RadomDrawJagiellonia

1.75

57%

Home win

4.57

22%

Draw

4.78

21%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

63%

Over 2.5

1.59

37%

Under 2.5

2.70

41%

Over 3.5

2.44

59%

Under 3.5

1.69

23%

Over 4.5

4.35

77%

Under 4.5

1.30

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

61%

BTTS Yes

1.63

39%

BTTS No

2.59

Clean Sheet

30%

Radomiak Radom

3.30

13%

Jagiellonia

7.97

Win to Nil

17%

Radomiak Radom

5.78

3%

Jagiellonia

38.07

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.8 4.5 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1
1 7.9 9.4 5.6 2.2 0.7 0.2
2 8.2 9.8 5.8 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 5.7 6.8 4.0 1.6 0.5 0.1
4 2.9 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1
5 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.076
λ Away (xG) 1.195
Total xG 3.271
League avg home goals 1.677
League avg away goals 1.241
Radomiak Radom attack strength 1.348
Radomiak Radom defence strength 0.974
Jagiellonia attack strength 0.988
Jagiellonia defence strength 0.918
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 37