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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Radomiaka plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 17 August 2025 at 16:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Stadion Radomiaka, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Jagiellonia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Jagiellonia's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Radomiak Radom, 1.50 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Jagiellonia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Jagiellonia hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 0–5 with Jagiellonia winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jagiellonia have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 68% and Jagiellonia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Jagiellonia 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 2.08 xG and Jagiellonia 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.348 / defence 0.974 | Jagiellonia attack 0.988 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.241. Radomiak Radom carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Radomiak Radom games / 37 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 57% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 21%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Jagiellonia 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.

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