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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 November 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Form

Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Radomiaka: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion Radomiaka than their overall form suggests.

Gornik Zabrze's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Radomiak Radom, 3 for Gornik Zabrze and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 2–3 with Gornik Zabrze winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 72% and Gornik Zabrze 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 66% | Gornik Zabrze 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.191 / defence 0.831 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.877 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.260. Gornik Zabrze's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Radomiak Radom games / 50 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 21%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Gornik Zabrze 4.76. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 70% | Gornik Zabrze 40%.

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