Radomiak Radom 4-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 November 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Radomiaka: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion Radomiaka than their overall form suggests.
Gornik Zabrze's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 3 for Gornik Zabrze and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 2–3 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 72% and Gornik Zabrze 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 66% | Gornik Zabrze 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.191 / defence 0.831 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.877 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.260. Gornik Zabrze's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Radomiak Radom games / 50 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 21%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Gornik Zabrze 4.76. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 70% | Gornik Zabrze 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Friday 28 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.50 / Gornik Zabrze 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.191 / def 0.831 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.877 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Gornik Zabrze xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 November 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Radomiak Radom 4 - 0 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 49% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (7 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 3 | Gornik Zabrze 3W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.19) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.88x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.29
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.42
0.92
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
5%
21.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.92 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 17W 12D 21L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 22W 11D 17L from 50 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.54 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 6D 10L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.40 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 22W 11D 17L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.67 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 4-0 on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
5
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 71%, Gornik Zabrze 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Radomiak Radom) and 42% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Radomiak Radom's games and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 42% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Gornik Zabrze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Gornik Zabrze 4-0 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gornik Zabrze landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.88 / defence 0.77, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 21%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 66%, Gornik Zabrze 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.26 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.