🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 0.77 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.49 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.16 / defence 0.57, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 19% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 54%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 38%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights