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Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.57 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.38 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.11 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 42% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 34%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 39%, Radomiak Radom 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.06 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights