🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Widzew Łódź 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Łódź 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.53 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.28 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.12 / defence 1.04 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 30%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights