Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Pogon Szczecin make the trip to to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Radomiak Radom have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Pogon Szczecin (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On a straight form reading, Pogon Szczecin are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Radomiak Radom 4W, Pogon Szczecin 4W, 2D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 66% and Pogon Szczecin 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 59% | Pogon Szczecin 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.85 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.882 / defence 1.176 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.976 / defence 0.618. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.298. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.618 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Radomiak Radom games / 44 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 18% | Draw 33% | Pogon Szczecin 49%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 5.56 | Draw 3.03 | Pogon Szczecin 2.04. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 80% | Pogon Szczecin 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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