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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 18, as Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.99 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.45 xG, a combined 4.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.36 / defence 1.12 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.06 / defence 1.33, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 68% | Draw 17% | Radomiak Radom 15%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 57%, Radomiak Radom 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights