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Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Piast Gliwice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Piast Gliwice 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.62 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.23 / defence 1.24 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 47% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 27%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 52%, Piast Gliwice 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.52 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights