Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 October 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pogon Szczecin 1.00 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 2 for Piast Gliwice and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 45% versus Piast Gliwice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 52% | Piast Gliwice 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.62 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.228 / defence 1.244 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.802 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.194. Data: 44 Pogon Szczecin games / 42 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 47% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 27%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Piast Gliwice 3.70. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 40% | Piast Gliwice 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 47% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.62 / Piast Gliwice 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.228 / def 1.244 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.802 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Piast Gliwice xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 3 October 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 47% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
Record (8 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 3 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.88
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.82
1.19
Piast Gliwice xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
5%
18.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.19 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 19W 7D 16L from 42 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 14L across 42 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.52 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 14W 2D 4L from 20 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 6W 5D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.05 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 7D 16L in their last 42 games (1.52 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 12W 16D 14L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.20 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Piast Gliwice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 35%, Piast Gliwice 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Pogon Szczecin) and 30% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 40% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 30% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Piast Gliwice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Piast Gliwice 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.62 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.23 / defence 1.24 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 47% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 27%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 52%, Piast Gliwice 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.52 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.