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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.59 xG and Nieciecza 1.34 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.27 / defence 1.11 against Nieciecza attack 0.97 / defence 1.29, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 18% | Nieciecza 18%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 68%, Nieciecza 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Nieciecza's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.11 PPG, Nieciecza 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Nieciecza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights