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Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Pogon Szczecin 1-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.03 xG and Lech Poznan 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lech Poznan outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Lech Poznan attack 0.93 / defence 0.75, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 34%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Lech Poznan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights