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Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Korona Kielce 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Korona Kielce 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.32 xG and Korona Kielce 1.09 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Korona Kielce attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 29%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Korona Kielce 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights